I ran a monte carlo analysis to assess the odds of the ratsocrats gaining control of the US Senate in the 2016 election. As things stand now, I make it 55.6% that the ratsocrats pull it off.
Currently, the GOP has 54 seats in the Senate, with 46 for the ratsocrats. There are 34 Senate elections in 2016, of which 24 are currently held by the GOP. The GOP can only afford to lose 3 seats to be assured of control of the US Senate. If the GOP candidate wins the presidency in 2016, then the GOP can afford to lose 4 seats, as the GOP vice president would be able to break a tie.
Therefore, the GOP needs to win at least 21 seats in the 2016 Senate elections.
Here’s the table of race by race assessments I used:
|CO||Michael Bennet||ratsocrats||Leans D|
|FL||Marco Rubio||gop||Leans R|
|NC||Richard Burr||gop||Leans R|
|NH||Kelly Ayotte||gop||Leans R|
|OH||Rob Portman||gop||Leans R|
|AK||Lisa Murkowski||gop||Likely R|
|AZ||John McCain||gop||Likely R|
|IN||Dan Coats||gop||Likely R|
|LA||David Vitter||gop||Likely R|
|MO||Roy Blunt||gop||Likely R|
|CA||Barbara Boxer||ratsocrats||Safe D|
|CT||Richard Blumenthal||ratsocrats||Safe D|
|HI||Brian Schatz||ratsocrats||Safe D|
|MD||Barbara Mikulski||ratsocrats||Safe D|
|NY||Chuck Schumer||ratsocrats||Safe D|
|OR||Ron Wyden||ratsocrats||Safe D|
|VT||Patrick Leahy||ratsocrats||Safe D|
|WA||Patty Murray||ratsocrats||Safe D|
|AL||Richard Shelby||gop||Safe R|
|AR||John Boozman||gop||Safe R|
|GA||Johnny Isakson||gop||Safe R|
|IA||Chuck Grassley||gop||Safe R|
|ID||Mike Crapo||gop||Safe R|
|KS||Jerry Moran||gop||Safe R|
|KY||Rand Paul||gop||Safe R|
|ND||John Hoeven||gop||Safe R|
|OK||James Lankford||gop||Safe R|
|SC||Tim Scott||gop||Safe R|
|SD||John Thune||gop||Safe R|
|UT||Mike Lee||gop||Safe R|
The distribution of outcomes is shown below. The X axis is the number of seats won by the GOP in the election.
So, this will be a close election, more than likely. Small changes in a very few elections will swing the probabilities frequently. For example, the Nevada seat held by Harry Reid has to be viewed as a toss-up right now. After candidates declare and are selected, it may swing in one party’s favor.