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January 14, 2009
By: enrico
Category: economics
I really like Dave Ramsey’s radio show. I subscribe to the podcast, and I listen to his show almost every day. His basic message is potentially transformative for so many people in our country who have failed to pay attention to their money, and who have failed to make discipline and forethought a cornerstone of their lives.
But, he’s not ALWAYS right, and I wish devoutly that he would stop saying one particular thing that could easily prove to be devastating to his most devoted followers.
Dave often tells callers that they can and should count on making 10% a year from their stock market investments. I’ve heard a conversation like this more times than I can count (ok, if I had to make an honest estimate, I would say at least 6 times, so maybe I CAN count the times):
caller: Dave, I have $1mm which I got as insurance proceeds when my husband suddenly dropped dead.
Dave: [extensive condolences and spiritual guidance]
caller: Thank you. What should I do with the money?
Dave: Do you have any debt?
caller: Yes, [names amount and type. Let's pretend the caller has debts of $150k.]
Dave: Pay off the debt. Invest the rest in the stock market. Then, you’ll have an annual income of $85k from your stock market investments. Can you live on $85k per year?
caller: [ecstatic noises of joy and relief]
OMG, this is SUCH terrible and dangerous advice!
It is true that the stock market’s long term average return is somewhere north of 10%, depending on the period you choose.
It is also true that $1mm invested in the broad S&P 500 in January 1998 would today be worth about $911,000, counting ALL returns, including dividends.
It is true that if you invested $1mm in the stock market in January 1998 and took out 10% of your portfolio each year at the end of the year, today you’d have about $286,000 left. That poor caller would now be looking at trying to live on $28,000.
The safe rate of withdrawal from a stock market portfolio is certainly no higher than 6% or so.
Several years ago, Enrico was contemplating leaving his job. He had accumulated some capital, and he wanted to answer the question, “assuming I never earn another dime in my life by actually working, can I live on the earnings on my capital?” He read all the stuff that he is now quoting, saying that you can’t take out more than about 6% and have a reasonable shot at not running out of money. But Enrico didn’t believe it. Mind you, this was in the 90s, the LATE 90s, when the stock market laughed to scorn at measly annual returns of 10%!
Enrico read up on Monte Carlo simulations, and he built one to try to answer this question. He loaded in the past 70 years of actual annual total stock market returns, and he plugged in a figure for earnings from a theoretical bond portfolio, and he built his simulation to try a broad range of allocations to stocks and bonds. He wrote the thing in Quickbasic, if you must know.
The simulation started with a given amount of capital, remarkably similar to Enrico’s little pile of capital, and each year, it randomly selected an actual annual stock market total return, applied it to the capital, applied the rate of withdrawal to be tested, and moved on to the next year. He ran 30 year simulations, and he ran about 100,000 trials. The simulator kept track of whether, in a given trial, the capital balance ever dropped below zero.
He tried two different ways of applying withdrawals: a withdrawal set based on a given percentage of the starting capital amount, and fixed for the entire 30 year period, and a withdrawal recalculated each year, applying a given percentage, but based on that year’s ending capital. The latter method was a complete disaster. The former method provided a modicum of possible survival.
God damn it, the fucking financial pundits were right. The best scenario was a 50/50 mix of stocks and bonds, 4% virtually guaranteed not running out, 5% was pretty damn close to a guarantee, and 6% was a noticeable risk. 7% exposes you to, like, a 25% chance of running out of money. Anything over 7% was like flipping a coin.
Enrico did not quit his job. He did not have enough money yet.
The other really sobering thing Enrico had to face up to is the effect of inflation. The real purpose of stock market investments over the long haul is to hedge against inflation. The 5% at the outset method, never adjusted for the changing value of the portfolio, really gives you a royal inflation raping. In reality, I think this method is impractical as an inflexible rule. Enrico didn’t model this, but I suspect that a withdrawal based on applying 5% to the multi year retrospective average portfolio value would probably be prudent.
Dave, PLEASE stop telling people to spend 10% of their stock market portfolio every year!
Leave a Reply
January 15th, 2009 at 2:43 am
People act like it’s a law of physics that the stock market returns, on average, 10% per year. This is not some immutable law…this is a pattern that was observed in a particular historical era, which may or may not have ended.
January 15th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Yer dern tootin’. People focus on a very brief history of the stock market, going back only about 70 years. True cycles in the markets have durations measured in decades. No one every gets to experience more than one or two cycles.
January 16th, 2009 at 7:40 am
I am approaching my 60th, have made a fair amount of dough in my lifetime and always put surplus in the stock market. Thus I have lived through 3 big market hits. Believe me, you never catch up from those hits.
My only redeeming move was moving 2/3rds of my mutual funds into CDs and muni’s in Jan 2008. Should have been 100%.
My advice to my children – emphasize capital preservation as your immutable goal.
Good column, E.
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