Ratsocrats have a 55.6% chance of gaining control of the Senate in 2016

I ran a monte carlo analysis to assess the odds of the ratsocrats gaining control of the US Senate in the 2016 election.  As things stand now, I make it 55.6% that the ratsocrats pull it off.

Currently, the GOP has 54 seats in the Senate, with 46 for the ratsocrats.  There are 34 Senate elections in 2016, of which 24 are currently held by the GOP.  The GOP can only afford to lose 3 seats to be assured of control of the US Senate.  If the GOP candidate wins the presidency in 2016, then the GOP can afford to lose 4 seats, as the GOP vice president would be able to break a tie.

Therefore, the GOP needs to win at least 21 seats in the 2016 Senate elections.

Here’s the table of race by race assessments I used:

 

state incumbent incumbent party status
CO Michael Bennet ratsocrats Leans D
FL Marco Rubio gop Leans R
NC Richard Burr gop Leans R
NH Kelly Ayotte gop Leans R
OH Rob Portman gop Leans R
AK Lisa Murkowski gop Likely R
AZ John McCain gop Likely R
IN Dan Coats gop Likely R
LA David Vitter gop Likely R
MO Roy Blunt gop Likely R
CA Barbara Boxer ratsocrats Safe D
CT Richard Blumenthal ratsocrats Safe D
HI Brian Schatz ratsocrats Safe D
MD Barbara Mikulski ratsocrats Safe D
NY Chuck Schumer ratsocrats Safe D
OR Ron Wyden ratsocrats Safe D
VT Patrick Leahy ratsocrats Safe D
WA Patty Murray ratsocrats Safe D
AL Richard Shelby gop Safe R
AR John Boozman gop Safe R
GA Johnny Isakson gop Safe R
IA Chuck Grassley gop Safe R
ID Mike Crapo gop Safe R
KS Jerry Moran gop Safe R
KY Rand Paul gop Safe R
ND John Hoeven gop Safe R
OK James Lankford gop Safe R
SC Tim Scott gop Safe R
SD John Thune gop Safe R
UT Mike Lee gop Safe R
IL Mark Kirk gop Toss-up
NV Harry Reid ratsocrats Toss-up
PA Pat Toomey gop Toss-up
WI Ron Johnson gop Toss-up

The distribution of outcomes is shown below.   The X axis is the number of seats won by the GOP in the election.

So, this will be a close election, more than likely.  Small changes in a very few elections will swing the probabilities frequently.  For example, the Nevada seat held by Harry Reid has to be viewed as a toss-up right now.  After candidates declare and are selected, it may swing in one party’s favor.

2016 senate graph 4-1-2015