A real wager

Enrico entered into a wager today, getting 5 to 1 odds on a McCain victory. Enrico continues to hope Obama wins, and today he pulled the metaphorical lever for Obama, but Enrico is mindful that Obama overpolled and underdelivered throughout the primaries.

The polls are hard to figure, though, because this is going to be MONSTER turnout. Enrico has voted early for a number of years, and he has NEVER had to wait in line before. Today, there was a hour wait. Usually, the most accurate polls are the ones that try to assess the likelihood that the respondee is going to vote, and the most widely accepted method for this is to ask whether the respondee did in fact vote in the most recent election, and perhaps the most recent comparable election. Those polls are not going to be anywhere near as reliable as they normally are, due to the extreme turnout.

It is typical that turnout for a presidential election is around 50%. Anything above 60% is considered huge. 70% is unheard of. I think we will crack 60%, and have a shot at 70%.

It is unclear who a monster turnout favors in this case. Black folk have low turnout, so monster there is good for Obama. Christian fundamentalists have low turnout, so i guess monster there is good for McCain. I think we’re in uncharted territory here.

I think Obama may be in for a nasty surprise. It is always a mistake to spike the ball prior to passing the varsity stripe.

The GOP deserves the death penalty

The Republican Party has lost its way. It has nominated a man, John McCain, who does not in the least represent the true principles upon which the party was founded. The party was given complete control of the Federal government for the past eight years, and has responded by looting the treasury and trampling on the constitution, and the party’s nominee has been right there with the worst of them in supporting this revolting conduct.

We’ve seen this movie before. The Republican Party was born out of a rift in the Whig Party, over slavery. After years of wrangling between those who favored compromise and those who saw that the nation must end the abomination of slavery, there was a split and men like Greeley, Seward, Chase and Lincoln left the Whig Party, and founded the Republican Party. After the split in 1852, the Whig Party never again saw its candidate elected president.

There are many supporters of the Republican Party who are today apologizing for its shocking conduct over the last eight years, but are still urging support of the party in the upcoming election. They should instead be turning their energies into organizing an opposition to the Republican Party, so that the Republican Party can be put to death, and a party dedicated to the original ideals of the GOP can be reborn.

I urge everyone who is inclined to vote for Republican candidates to consider the bigger picture, and to face the fact that only by strangling this party which has so vilely betrayed us will we see the rebirth of a party which deserves our support. Tell Republican candidates who you think have merit that you expect them to denounce the party’s conduct, and to provide leadership to put it to death.

Good article in Science Magazine

There’s a good article in the October 10th edition of Science Magazine, about teleconnection between northern hemisphere insolation and temperatures in tropical southeastern Africa during the past 60,000 years. The gist of the article is that the authors examined the orthodox view that CO2 concentrations would play a significant role in the teleconnection. However, INCONVENIENTLY, their analysis shows that temperatures began to rise in tropic southeastern Africa (this is the area of the African great lakes, like Lake Tanganyika) about 3000 years before rises in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

The authors don’t draw any big conclusions about this in relation to the global warming hysteria (only the Alpha whitecoats are allowed to do that, to challenge the orthodoxy is to risk being ceremoniously stripped of one’s whitecoat), but they do state that the mechanism for the teleconnection is unknown.

This article is also good for showing the artistry and resourcefulness needed to even begin to do even the roughest analysis of temperatures, CO2 levels, hydrology, and insolation at the distance of 60,000 years. Heck, even doing this analysis at the distance of 100 years is quite a challenge.

It is very obvious that popular culture completely misunderstands the level of precision inherent in these kinds of proxy-driven reconstructions. Researchers are forced to come up with a tailored approach to doing this analysis in a given locale, using whatever kinds of historical records may be readily available. The methods are not much repeatable in a different locale, and correlating the reconstructions done in one locale with those done in another locale is a fraught process which introduces its own rather high margin of error, multiplying the original errors in the separate reconstructions.

The statistical methods used to analyze the rate of error are total bullshit. This must be the case, as there is no control case, no base data with known correlations. The statistical methods boil down to a giant case of amazingly complex circular reasoning.

I don’t mean to imply that i know a better way to do the analysis these researchers are attempting. I admire their creativity and the intricate chains of connections and surmised biological processes that underlay the “data.” It isn’t really data.

Smash Putin right in the goolies

Russia is being squeezed hard by the precipitous decline in crude prices. The decadent west won’t heed W’s wisdom: “fool me once, shame on….fool me again….you won’t get fooled again!”

I hope and pray that western oil companies will never again during the reign of Putin or his lackeys invest any significant funds in Russia’s oil fields. It is crystal clear that Russia cannot get its oil to market without the help of western oil companies, and i hope and pray that Putin is about to be forced to contemplate this eternal truth.

Putin’s jackbooted thugs are stealing BP’s stake in their joint venture. I hope BP says “screw ’em.” Even the commies can’t eat crude. How about a law passed by the EU and the US forbidding western participation in Russian energy plays until and unless Russia honors its previous deals with western companies? Plus Putin has to put on a skirt and kiss the arse of a symbolically masculine western leader? Obama will do, Sarkozy is ok, Gordon Brown fails the test.

Plus, Putin has to evacuate his troops from Georgia, not the one north of Florida, the other one.

Thank you…..godfather

This article conjures up the following scene in my mind.

Paulson: Jamie, my old friend, please let me do this service for you, in the gift of many banks and branches.

Jamie Dimon: Bless you, godfather!

Paulson: now, Jamie, a time may come when i ask a service of you, a favor, in return.

Jamie: anything, godfather! Whatever you ask…

Seriously, though, it looks as though we’re going to see a big thaw in libor. it is certainly no accident that this story appears in the WSJ. The Godfather doesn’t want his good works to be hid under a bushel basket.

We should shortly see long rates start to fall. Paulson et al. want desperately to have cheap mortgage money, the better to soak up all the excess housing units, which really probably ought to be razed. Check out rates on solid munis, you can easily get long yields in the high 5s, but this is highly temporary. Do you have the guts to buy them? I don’t. The inflation monster is scaring me half to death.

Election Predictions

Look, I want Obama to win. I am going to vote for him. My vote, being cast in Texas, is highly unlikely to figure in the outcome I favor, however, as i simply cannot conceive the possibility that Obama carries Texas.

The yammering idiots on TV have all but crowned Obama President. There is talk of a 14 point lead.

I think this is nonsense. It looks to me, for the first time, as though Obama has a real chance to win, but I still believe that McCain will pull it out. Lord knows, he doesn’t deserve to win. I am sure there are many people who are certain that McCain has been ritually paddled by the Trilateral Commission in New Haven and Zurich, to ensure his cooperation in throwing the election to Obama, as part of an evil plot to replace the dollar with the norteamericano and ensure profits for the Carlyle Group, with the added incentive of a bet for $1 between Bar and HW.

What the hell is McCain thinking, by not running ads 24/7 featuring Obama’s crazy minister? Where is the equivalent of Lee Atwater in McCain’s campaign? There is so much material to work with, and McCain has abstained from the proven winning path. Instead, he has Senator Danforth boring everyone to death with a mild prayer that Obama “rein in” ACORN to at least reduce their level of voter fraud.

Racism runs by and large in this country. I don’t like it, but my not liking it doesn’t make it un so. Will Obama really carry Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania? I say “no way,” at least, not without total theft, which, I concede, is something to consider.

I have looked at the polls showing Obama leading in Florida. I think they are total bullshit. Have you ever lived in Florida? There’s a lot of the state above Miami. Go rent “Porky’s”: it is a documentary.

Pay no attention to the rally today

This rally today has no meaning. The US bond market is closed. Volume was light. Tomorrow we’ll see if there is any tightening in the gap between Libor and Treasury rates, and we’ll see whether rates on the Treasuries move.

The yammering idiots make the point that this is the biggest one day move in the Dow since March 1933. For once they’ve hit on a good point, but not the point they think they’re making. In March 1933, the bear market still had at least a decade to run.