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Ratsocrats have a 55.6% chance of gaining control of the Senate in 2016

I ran a monte carlo analysis to assess the odds of the ratsocrats gaining control of the US Senate in the 2016 election.  As things stand now, I make it 55.6% that the ratsocrats pull it off.

Currently, the GOP has 54 seats in the Senate, with 46 for the ratsocrats.  There are 34 Senate elections in 2016, of which 24 are currently held by the GOP.  The GOP can only afford to lose 3 seats to be assured of control of the US Senate.  If the GOP candidate wins the presidency in 2016, then the GOP can afford to lose 4 seats, as the GOP vice president would be able to break a tie.

Therefore, the GOP needs to win at least 21 seats in the 2016 Senate elections.

Here’s the table of race by race assessments I used:


state incumbent incumbent party status
CO Michael Bennet ratsocrats Leans D
FL Marco Rubio gop Leans R
NC Richard Burr gop Leans R
NH Kelly Ayotte gop Leans R
OH Rob Portman gop Leans R
AK Lisa Murkowski gop Likely R
AZ John McCain gop Likely R
IN Dan Coats gop Likely R
LA David Vitter gop Likely R
MO Roy Blunt gop Likely R
CA Barbara Boxer ratsocrats Safe D
CT Richard Blumenthal ratsocrats Safe D
HI Brian Schatz ratsocrats Safe D
MD Barbara Mikulski ratsocrats Safe D
NY Chuck Schumer ratsocrats Safe D
OR Ron Wyden ratsocrats Safe D
VT Patrick Leahy ratsocrats Safe D
WA Patty Murray ratsocrats Safe D
AL Richard Shelby gop Safe R
AR John Boozman gop Safe R
GA Johnny Isakson gop Safe R
IA Chuck Grassley gop Safe R
ID Mike Crapo gop Safe R
KS Jerry Moran gop Safe R
KY Rand Paul gop Safe R
ND John Hoeven gop Safe R
OK James Lankford gop Safe R
SC Tim Scott gop Safe R
SD John Thune gop Safe R
UT Mike Lee gop Safe R
IL Mark Kirk gop Toss-up
NV Harry Reid ratsocrats Toss-up
PA Pat Toomey gop Toss-up
WI Ron Johnson gop Toss-up

The distribution of outcomes is shown below.   The X axis is the number of seats won by the GOP in the election.

So, this will be a close election, more than likely.  Small changes in a very few elections will swing the probabilities frequently.  For example, the Nevada seat held by Harry Reid has to be viewed as a toss-up right now.  After candidates declare and are selected, it may swing in one party’s favor.

2016 senate graph 4-1-2015

A non-hipster shops for a scooter

Gladys and I have been spending a fair amount of time in Austin recently, and it kind of came up that perhaps Gladys would like to have a scooter.

The city fathers of Austin are obviously extremely opposed to parking convenience, as a result, it immediately strikes one that perhaps a vehicle with a smaller footprint, more favored by the management, would make life more convenient.  You can park a motorcycle or a scooter lots of places in downtown Austin where it is essentially impossible to park a car, and parking is not infrequently free for motorcycles and scooters.  Enrico already has the Ninja 650 in hand for this purpose.

So, I set out to procure a scooter for Gladys, as a Christmas present.

The first thing I learned was that you need at least a scooter with at least a 250cc engine to be able to legally venture onto the freeway.  A 250cc scooter is perfectly capable of doing 60 mph, and you can get scooters with larger engines, capable of doing 90 mph or more.

However, these larger scooters tend to be kind of stylistically indistinguishable from a motorcycle, with big fairings and a more aerodynamic body, as obviously you need for a bike that’s going to be doing 70-80 mph on the freeway.  I knew that’s not what Gladys would want.

I knew she would probably want something like the classic Vespa, as below, a Vespa 250 GTS:


Now, this is a modern Vespa, actually made by Piaggio, as they have been since introduced in 1946.  It has a 244cc engine, with fuel injection, and automatic transmission, a belt-driven continuously variable transmission.  So, it is just twist and go, with front brake on the right handle and rear brake lever on the left handle.

I looked at quite a few makes:  Kymco, Aprilia (owned by Piaggio), the Yamaha scooters, the Honda scooters, and the scooters from SSR Motorsports, which I happened across in Waco, of all places.

I really liked the SSR scooter I tried, which I think was the Marina model.  However, the SSR scooters are not fuel injected.  The day I happened by the scooter dealer in Waco, it was pretty cold, maybe 35 F, and it took the salesman a good fifteen minutes to get the scooter running.  It was peppy, handled well, and had a classic look, and it was priced significantly lower than the other comparable scooters from Piaggio and Kymco.  But this experience made me decide that fuel injection was an indispensable innovation.

I tried the KymCo Like 200i and the KymCo People 300i.  The latter model was getting too far away from the classic look of the Vespa, as befits its status as a real highway bike.  I “liked” the Kymco 200i, but there was something about the geometry of the front wheel setup and the riding position that felt unstable to me.  The dealer wouldn’t let me take it out on the street, so, I was reduced to doing laps around the parking lot.  Maybe it isn’t fair, but I just didn’t like the way it handled.   It felt like I was right over the front wheel.  It doesn’t look any less raked than other similar scooters, but it sure felt less raked.

I didn’t actually drive the Yamahas or the Hondas.  I couldn’t seem to find a dealer for Honda scooters in Houston, and the used ones I saw on Craig’s list were just not very appealing.  For the Yamahas, I couldn’t locate a classic-looking Yamaha with an engine bigger than about 100cc.  I also had trouble locating an Aprilia to try.  There’s a Vespa / Aprilia dealer right in downtown Austin, but it just hasn’t been convenient to go try one there.

After buying the Ninja 650 from an ad on Craig’s list, I went back to Craig’s list to try to find scooters.   I really recommend this.  You can often find lightly used motorcycles and scooters for sale on Craig’s list at big discounts to the new price.  I think a lot of people buy motorcycles and scooters, and just find they never really use them very much.   You  can benefit from their over-enthusiasm.

I found a 2007 Vespa GTS 250ie for sale, with only about 2000 miles on it, for an asking price in the 3s.   A test drive and a little negotiation put it in Gladys’s garage for a very reasonable price.

I hope she likes it.  But, if she doesn’t, it didn’t cost very much, and someone will ride it!

The law says you need a motorcycle endorsement to ride a scooter with an engine bigger than 50cc.  I’m certainly going to urge Gladys to take the motorcycle course to get her license.  It’s a weekend, and it’s well worth it.  But, in practice, I’ve never been asked by a cop to show my motorcycle license.

How will I get it to Austin?  I’ve invested in a hitch carrier for the Yukon, the Rage Powersports SMC-600R.  Also will work for hauling the Ninja, a bonus.

Update:  Gladys liked it!  But she still hasn’t taken the motorcycle course.  I’ve been riding it a bit, and it is really fun.  It is surprisingly peppy.  But, then again, my first motorcycle, at age 16, was a 106 cc Bianchi sold by Sears.

The perfect contrary indicator

I heard today that both Larry Kudlow and Helicopter Ben have both guaranteed that we will not have a double dip recession.  That’s the perfect contrary indicator:  we’re going to have a double dip recession.  The economy might as well be on the cover of Sports Illustrated wearing a red sweater before the Masters.

Hey Charlie, it isn’t about you

See article in the BAOJ:

This is everything that’s wrong with the ratsocrats, and more generally wrong with politics.  Who should represent Rangel’s current district?  The proper answer to that question has NOTHING to do with Chuckie Rangel’s needs.   The mere fact that Rangel gives this as a reason to re-elect him is more than ample reason to disqualify him.

There’s this thing called public service, look into it.

Three banks on Friday

Three banks failed on Friday, June 4, raising the number of banks which have failed so far this year to 81.  That’s an average of .5226 banks per day, down from last week’s cumulative daily YTD rate of .5270.

The rate for 2009 was .38 banks per day. The rate for 2008 was .07 banks per day.

The estimated cost to the DIF of Friday’s failures is $313.6 million, compared to the previous Friday’s cost of $317 million, almost a dead heat.  The cumulative average daily DIF cost YTD is $110 million, down from last week’s $113 million.  So far this year, the estimated total DIF cost is $17.054 billion.

Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy

Enrico has to confess a certain amount, not a huge amount, of schadenfreude upon reading this story about Elon Musk’s financial predicament.

Elon Musk has made a lot, a LOT of money, notably with the sale of PayPal to Ebay, but that was not his only big score, by any means.

Elon Musk is very, very satisfied with himself.  He exudes self satisfaction.  Frankly, he is boastful.  Enrico strongly disapproves of boastfulness.  Enrico thinks the universe disapproves of boastfulness.

But, all that said, Elon Musk has a lot to boast about.  All the more credit to him if he can manage to resist the temptation.